Acting on an Agreed Agenda

Given that strategic foresight inherently has a long and broad horizon, the challenge to those concerned with taking action today to secure a better future tomorrow lies largely in forging the link between the vision ahead and the bottom-line now. This final phase of “Acting” is primarily about communication – making the conceptual more material, and getting the individual and collective ‘buy-in’ of all involved. Successful implementation also entails creating an acceptable action agenda, establishing an appropriate intelligence system and effectively institutionalising strategic thinking.

Communicating Policy Proposals

A presentation protocol for policy proposals should have been designed and agreed from the outset. So far as possible, all significant stakeholders should be engaged and key decision-makers committed. Great care has to be taken, moreover, to construct a communication plan that conforms to the culture of the organisation and confronts it on its own terms. Furthermore, it should have been tested and refined in a variety of feedback activities prior to public launch. From experience, we have found the following factors worthy of consideration:

• The forum and format for the final presentation should carefully be determined.
• Time spent rehearsing the best style for the particular audience is never wasted.
• The message often has to be tailored specifically recognising the complexity involved.
• Beware a mismatch in the mindset of the consultant and the client in considering expectations within different timeframes.
• Do not be afraid of being provocative and providing an element of surprise.
• Ensure an adequate explanation of alternative pathways and their consequences.
• Never sacrifice integrity simply telling an organisation what it wants to hear.

Plans, policies and proposals alone, however perceptive they may be, do not always readily convince organisations to address change. Scepticism of the findings from strategic foresight is not uncommon, and special skills on the part of the consultant are required to shape and advance an organisation’s awareness of the need to revise, reform and renew. We have always found that the ‘scenarios’ developed earlier in the process also promote a better understanding of the organisation’s position in terms of policy implementation.

Creating an Action Plan

It is a common conception, to which we concur, that ‘real’ change invariably only occurs through a sense of either potential crisis or great opportunity. Many organisations and their decision-makers are difficult to disturb from their comfort zones. It is often necessary, therefore, to generate a belief that the organisation cannot continue to operate in the way that it has – either through fear of imminent failure or the missed chance of boundless success. Again, there are a few pointers toward best practice.

• Creating a sense of urgency challenges the complacency of the client organisation.
• Beware of under-communicating the vision, and neglecting to connect proposed change to the organisational culture.
• Reinforce what the organisation is already doing and build from there.
• Challenge the assumptions that underlie the organisation’s expectations. Too many organisations expect the future to be like the present, only bigger and faster.
• Remember, all of the information necessary to make perfect decisions is never there.
• Identify ‘milestones’ along the path to the preferred future, and celebrate small successes on the way.
• Consider the possibility of investing in at least one “crazy idea”.

A common attitude towards the future is one of regret: “if only we had known earlier, then we could have……”. Constructing an action plan that has at least considered unconventional thinking will at least minimise the threat of this happening.

Establishing an Intelligence System

Any organisation large enough to have a formal planning process should also possess an ordered and customised system for developing business intelligence. One that feeds into it and is properly aligned. This intelligence system should constantly be monitoring and reporting on the external business environment. Further, it provides a common process for asking questions and formulating answers. Like a form of corporate radar, it also acts as an ‘early warning system’ to detect ‘weak signals’ flickering on the horizon that are the precursors of threats and opportunities. Commonly, it is held that there are a number of key steps to this.

• Identifying the most important fields for observation.
• Determining the pivotal questions to be posed about the future.
• Clarifying the critical issues surrounding strategic threats and opportunities.
• Deciding what are the most appropriate sensors – people, networks and search systems.
• Selecting suitable sources in terms of specialist expertise.
• Looking for reliable indicators of ‘discontinuous change ’ which are easy to collect and comprehend.

Increasingly, strategic foresight is being employed in response to ‘turbulence’ in the external environment. A lack of awareness, preparedness and adaptability can easily lead to organisations failing to accommodate disruption. Setting-up a satisfactory intelligence system as part of plan implementation becomes imperative.

Institutionalising Strategic Thinking

All too often ‘futures thinking’ and ‘strategic foresight’ are conducted by corporations on a one-off basis. It is, however, becoming progressively recognised that they need to be embedded within the organisational structure and decision-making processes of the firm or agency. Scanning for trends and issues should be part of corporate daily practice, and regular analysis to reflect on the insights thus garnered scheduled repeatedly into organisational programmes. A significant initial time investment is required to establish the framework and discipline, but, once done, the practice becomes second nature, and the mindset of the organisation invariably starts to change. Quite soon, the quality of the process and the added-value of the outcomes becomes evident. Indeed, to conclude, one is reminded of the adage coined by George Bernard Shaw: “You see things and say ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were and I say ‘Why not?’”

Visioning a Preferred Future

The essential purpose of Strategic Foresight is to make better, and more informed decisions in the present. All organisations, however, need to ask the basic questions about their future: “Where are we going? What do we want to be? And how do we know what we want to be doing?” In achieving this, they not only need to identify all the implications of alternative futures; challenge the basic assumptions of their thinking and operation; but also “think big” about their aspirations ahead.

One of our favourite sayings at Hillbreak when conducting a Strategic Foresight Exercise and arriving at the ‘Visioning’ stage is: “Imagine ahead and plan backwards”. ‘Presencing’  is the professional term. This is the reverse of the conventional ‘trend extrapolation’ mindset of most planning practices, but we believe that creating a vision for the future is vital in helping identify long-term goals and strategies. Nevertheless, it should be recognised that a strategic vision is akin to a ‘lodestar’ in that it provides an image of the future that offers direction yet is never reached. In this way, visioning is also an iterative process, as the formulation of strategies and plans may raise issues and questions that make it wise to revise the vision and the consequent strategy over time.

A strategic vision serves organisations as a template, model, or interpretive framework for making sense of the daily puzzle; as well as providing a rallying point for focusing the organisation’s work. In tough times, moreover, it can provide reassurance that current challenges will pass and are worth navigating through. It also aligns the organisation and its stakeholders around a common purpose communicating expectations to all concerned. A great vision statement, however, does not guarantee great results. Unless everyone involved believes in the vision, and acts accordingly, it is simply words on paper.

Guiding Principles

The main advantages of creating a vision of an organisation’s preferred future is that it helps:

• look toward the horizon;
• consider the multi-faceted changes facing society, the sector, and the organisation;
• incorporate the entrepreneurial forces that it takes for organisations to succeed;
• develop a high-performance appraisal and incentive system;
• support continuous improvement; and,
• foster symbiotic relationships.

The following guiding principles should be considered when developing the preferred future vision during any workshop.

1. Visualisation: in order to achieve a preferred future, it is important to be able to imagine it. Rushing towards a hazy ideal is wasteful of energy and resources, and, to that end, the visual conceptualisation of the future is vital.
2. Communication: the realisation of future goals is only of value if all are willing to support and encourage their implementation. Effective communication of ideas between, and from, people and organisations is strategically crucial in creating the broadest base from which to achieve the preferred future. Involve ‘remarkable people’ throughout.
3. Integration: a preferred future which is clearly exclusive and selective should not form the basis of the vision. Selectivity leads to the creation of a preferred future for some people, but not for all. Integration of people and ideas at this stage of the process is a key factor in determining the long-term success or failure of the work.

How to Envision a Preferred Future

Somewhat prosaically perhaps, the following procedure is illustrative of how to envision a preferred future in a workshop setting:

1. The participants should seat themselves in a horseshoe or semi-circle arrangement in the main room.
2. Every participant is asked by the facilitator to spend time thinking carefully about what aspects of a desired future they consider important. (It is imperative that everybody does this with respect to the issues fleshed out during the day, particularly the scenarios and their turning points).
3. Approximately 2 to 3 aspects should be written down by each participant in a ‘statement-like’ format on cards or post-it notes.
4. Each participant is then asked to read out their contribution to the rest of the group.
5. The facilitator collects each of the cards or post-it notes and arranges or pins them onto a table or board at the centre of the room.
6. A short discussion is then encouraged to consider each of the aspects proposed: similarities, differences, connections and new ideas.
7. Once this discussion has taken place, the final aspects of the vision should be agreed by the participants and then compiled by the facilitator.

It is worth striking a note of caution regarding the very term “vision” in the context of an organisational setting, for the word itself can conjure up notions of ‘rapture’ rather than ‘reality’! Envisioning a preferred future is far more about perceptive and aspirational foresight than organisational yearning and wish fulfilment.

The Lasting Benefit

It has long been recognised that visionary corporations attain extraordinary long-term performance. Successive studies have found evidence that companies striving to learn and grow through futures-oriented thinking outlast companies focused solely on economic returns. A famed example by Royal Dutch/Shell found that the average life expectancy of Fortune 500 companies was under fifty years, but many were over two hundred years old. The key difference between the short- and long-lived companies was that the former focused on financial returns while the latter concentrated on the community of people comprising the organisation, maintaining a strong sense of identity and purpose through shared vision of a preferred future in good times as well as bad.

A concluding injunction for the visioning stage of the strategic foresight process is: “Dare to be the ridiculous!” The mindset should be close to Disney’s concept of: “the willing suspension of disbelief”; emphasising the presence of mind to consider even the most ‘off-the-wall’ alternative prospects, pathways and solutions, and searching for the kernel of a useful notions within them. Build, therefore, upon wild ideas and continue to ask the ‘What If?” questions.

In this latest post, Professor John Ratcliffe, newly appointed Head of Strategic Foresight at Hillbreak, introduces the concept and corporate benefits of the discipline.

Leading an organisation through these turbulent times of market, technological and geo-political uncertainty is a major challenge. The risks attached to changing investment conditions and the ambiguity of professional pundits make it difficult for decision-makers to look ahead to the future and to frame the destiny of their organisation within it.

Yet the future is not predestined; we can shape and manipulate it if we know what we want it to be. Nor can the future be predicted. It can be explored and examined imaginatively though; challenging conventional assumptions, preparing for inevitable surprises and envisioning a range of scenarios from which to plan backwards.

This approach to viewing what can be done today – whether by organisations, individuals, cities or communities – to positively influence the future is known as “Strategic Foresight”.

The Process

At Hillbreak, we take a common-sense approach to Strategic Foresight comprising a six-stage formula.

1. FRAMING the Strategic Question. Organisations often start with the wrong question. Almost invariably, they assume a ‘business-as-usual’ model projected forwards. So time taken at this initial stage – challenging the rationale and purpose of what they are and what they are doing – is never wasted.

2. SCANNING the Horizon. Like a radar system, this should really be a formally structured and continuous activity across any organisation which has plans to be successful beyond the immediate term. It encompasses mapping of the trading territory and business environment, conducting thorough stakeholder analysis, exploring the unfamiliar, and looking backwards to learn from the past. More particularly, it involves:

• looking ahead – beyond usual timescales;
• looking across – beyond usual sources;
• gazing beyond – moving from a single ‘expected future’ to a range of alternative ‘possible futures’;
• considering – implications for today’s decisions; and,
• promoting – a sense of ‘resilience’ and ‘adaptability’ in strategy.

3. FORECASTING Alternative Futures. It is crucial to identify the driving forces of change affecting the organisation’s place in the world. It is important to look for turning or tipping points, to embrace divergent ideas, to prioritise convergent views, and to construct alternative futures. These ‘scenarios’ should be plausible and surprising, structurally different, internally consistent, useful and challenging. They help to create a better learning organisation.

4. VISIONING a Preferred Future. Having challenged some accepted assumptions, posed relevant “what-if?” questions, identified likely implications and possible unintended consequences, and thought creatively about the longer-term, this process seeks to concoct from the various scenarios a chosen ‘preferred future’ for the organisation.

5. PLANNING Strategic Options. The attitude of imagining ahead and planning backwards is the opposite of conventional planning but is central to our philosophy. It involves: thinking strategically to provoke constructive and reflective conversations; spotting areas of strategic choice; and evaluating any proposed strategy along multiple dimensions. Vitally, it demands contingency plans for unexpected surprises.

6. ACTING on an Agreed Agenda. Invariably, we encourage:

• creating an Action Plan with a sense of urgency;
• determining ‘milestones’ on the path towards a ‘preferred future’;
• establishing an ‘intelligence system’ to keep the radar scanning;
• effective communication of the results to stakeholders; and
• inculcating strategic thinking within the organisation.

Frequently, our last question to the client is: “What are you going to do first, and now?”

The benefits

Apart from the goals of capturing materiality, producing a strategic plan to guide organisations into the future, and giving their stakeholders confidence in their ability to adapt and manage risk, we find that the simple act of getting people together to share a common interest to think, talk, plan and act – creatively and differently – is exhilarating and corporately fruitful.

At Hillbreak we provide strategic consultancy services to organisations seeking competitive advantage in a changing urban world. This ranges from extensive professional studies of client organisations – challenging where they are going, what they are going to do, and how they are going to get there – to workshops and symposia for companies and their stakeholder networks.

“We do not need magic to transform our world. We carry all the power we need inside ourselves already. We have the power to imagine better.” J.K. Rowling, Harvard, 2008.