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The trouble with Science Based Targets

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Background

Formally-approved Science Based Targets (SBTs) are a scheme of the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi), a venture of the UN Global Compact, CDP, World Resources Institute and WWF. They have been gaining much attention and some traction amongst corporates and institutional investors; at the time of writing, 105 companies have in place targets formally approved by the SBTi.

In essence, these are targets adopted by companies to reduce emissions proportionately in line with the level of decarbonisation required to meet the <2oC global warming goal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

Certainly, SBTs have useful application at a macro or portfolio level. For example, they can be a tool for policy-makers to establish future carbon budgets and related policy instruments for individual economic sectors, or they can assist investors in setting climate mitigation goals across their respective investment universes. However, a principal benefit often cited of SBTs is that they provide evidence-based pathways against which to pin the carbon reduction strategies of individual entities, including within sector-specific contexts. This, we challenge.

Whilst SBTs have their place, including a welcome shift in thinking towards corporate climate action being proportional to associated global impacts, we question their role and utility at the individual entity level in the absence of sector-wide agreements to meet the necessary pathways.

Indeed, rather than being a force for rapid progress on the urgent need to mitigate climate change, they may actually have an unintended and dangerous dampening effect on the rate and extent to which individual companies – and sectors – achieve their full carbon reduction potential.

Of the various methodologies recognised by the SBTi, the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA) is the most applicable to real estate organisations, with a normalisation approach based on floor area and a carbon intensity pathway of 55 percent by 2050 from a 2010 baseline.

Driven by perceived or directly expressed investor requirements, a number of real estate organisations have established formal SBTs to demonstrate their commitment to the <2oC goal of the Paris Agreement. They have, understandably, received plaudits and achieved enhanced brand profile for taking an early stance in line with their market leadership on responsible property investment.

A race to the bottom

Aside from certain methodological limitations (including, in particular, on the question of how best to deal with Scope 3 emissions in a real estate context), we have a more fundamental concern with SBT-compliance being assumed by the industry as a badge of leadership for responsible investment when the SDA pathways represent the average level of decarbonisation needed of individual sectors. If organisations at the front of the ESG agenda are adopting targets based on the global sector average, the chances of those sector pathways being realised – and the goals of the Paris Agreement as a consequence – become very remote indeed.

There will be many real estate organisations with portfolios centred on advanced jurisdictions, such as the UK, where very little or no real action will be required of them, either because the continued decarbonisation of the grid will essentially do the job of achieving SBT-compliant trajectories for them, or arrangements can be made to purchase 100% of electricity from renewable sources at rates competitive with brown electricity. Worse than that, the efficiency of portfolios could actually regress, and an SBT could still be realised. There may also be unintended consequences relating to technology selection.

A problem amplified

In addition to specific investor requirements, the rationale for establishing SBTs at a house or entity level has been amplified by their positive recognition in the latest assessment framework of the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB), the most widely utilised portfolio-level barometer of attendance to ESG issues for the industry. By attaching ‘points’ to compliance, GRESB participants will have an added incentive to pursue formal SBT accreditation. Recognition is similar in the latest edition of the CDP Climate Change Module.

It means that schemes such as GRESB and CDP will be of limited effectiveness in driving the necessary sector-wide performance because they will be rewarding participants for setting out to achieve what should be considered a floor-level trajectory. In those cases where entities can rely entirely on grid decarbonisation in the jurisdictions in which they operate, this amounts to nothing more than recognising and rewarding an administrative process, albeit one that has involved a good deal of technical work undertaken in good faith by those wishing to demonstrate leadership. Perhaps this does warrant some time-limited credit, but the impact of true portfolio performance indicators on industry benchmark positions will be diluted in the meantime.

A better approach for investors

Investors that recognise the risks of climate change to capital market stability and investment performance, are, quite rightly, motivated to use their engagement activities with investee funds and companies as a means of positive influence to help drive decarbonisation. Requiring or encouraging the adoption of SBTs by those entities in which they are invested is, therefore, a seemingly obvious responsible investment tool. Interestingly, their widespread application across the asset classes may actually help to reinforce the merits of increasing capital allocations to real estate as part of comprehensive portfolio decarbonisation strategies.

However, we contend that, especially in mature markets, investors should not treat SBT compliance by individual entities as a marque of responsibility. Instead, they could aim to move towards science-based targets being a ‘lowest common denominator’ indicator for their allocations, complemented by stipulating clearer requirements on real estate companies and funds to demonstrate how, and by when, they will achieve (net) zero carbon status.

Towards net zero

In the meantime, and depending on case-by-case circumstances, we will continue to recommend and support our real estate clients’ efforts to pursue SBT compliance because of the increasingly clear demands for them to do so by investors and analysts. We will do this, however, with full acknowledgement of the limitations of the SBT approach, and will typically be encouraging greater emphasis on total decarbonisation pathways as part of a positive investor engagement and climate risk management journey.

This article was authored jointly by Jon Lovell, Co-Founder & Director of Hillbreak, and Dave Worthington, Managing Director of Verco.

SBT

Science Based Targets for Emissions Reduction

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Science Based Targets are being adopted by companies across multiple sectors as the basis for setting long-term goals. But how relevant and useful are they?

We’ve recently been advising a number of real estate organisations and funds on their responsible investment strategies and, as part of that, their approaches to target setting for energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction. Knowing where to set the bar is a often a primary concern.  Historically, organisations have generally set themselves relatively arbitrary targets based on intuitively manageable goals.  This is all well and good, up to a point, but does not necessarily mean that genuinely sustainable levels of carbon emissions will be achieved. If they are, it’ll more likely be by luck rather than judgement.

Increasingly, and catalysed by COP-21 and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the Science Based Target (SBT) approach is being adopted by companies across multiple sectors as the basis for setting long-term goals for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Much has been made of their relevance, complexity and usefulness, with opinions quite broadly spread.

In the first of two blogs which we’ll publish in quick succession, we discuss the various methodologies which exist under the umbrella of SBTs for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and the background to their application.

Methodologies

The Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTI) – a joint initiative between CDP, UN Global Compact, World Resources Institute and WWF – defines such targets as:

Targets adopted by companies to reduce GHG emissions are considered “science-based” if they are in line with the level of decarbonisation required to keep global temperature increase below 2oC compared to pre-industrial temperatures, as described in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

There are, however, multiple methodologies for setting Science Based Targets each with their respective strengths and weaknesses. Some of these are bespoke to individual organisations, such as those developed for their own purposes by BT Group, Ford Motor Company and Mars, although this does not preclude other organisations from adopting the same methodology because they have been published on an open source basis.  Others are particular to defined geographies, such as the 3% Solution which was developed specifically for the US.

More widely used open source versions are also available, although most of these are based on normalised intensity metrics based on the economic output of organisations. The GEVA (Greenhouse Gas Emissions per unit of Value Added) method, for example, is developed from the principle of reducing GHG emissions by 5% per year per unit of GDP created by individual corporations, based only on Scope 1 GHG emissions (thereby excluding emissions associated with electricity consumption or of supply chain activities).  The C-PACT method, developed by Autodesk, and the Context Based Carbon Metric, developed by the Centre for Sustainable Organizations, similarly use an economic output normalisation metric. A key disadvantage of these methods from a real estate owner’s point of view would be the distorting impact of commercial property value volatility.

The Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA) is the most recently developed and arguably the most complex methodology, but it is also the most applicable to real estate organisations in our opinion. It provides sector-specific emissions reduction pathways, with intensity measures premised on more useful and meaningful measures. For real estate, the normalisation approach is based on a CO2/m2 of floor area metric, with a carbon intensity pathway established of 55 percent by 2050 from a 2010 baseline (premised on a CO2 budget allocated to the sector by the SBTI which is considered proportionate in the context of the wider economy, yet in line with the goal of limiting global temperature increases to 2o above pre-industrial levels). The scope of the emissions to which SDA-based targets should be applied for real estate encompasses Scope 1 & 2 emissions, thereby including energy use associated with space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting, appliances (HVAC), and miscellaneous equipment (such as office equipment and other small plug loads in the service sectors).

Notably, the one commercial real estate owner that has developed a SBT to date, Land Securities, has used the SDA method with a target of achieving 40% reduction in the carbon intensity in property under management for at least two years by 2030 when compared with a 2013/14 baseline. This is deemed by Land Securities to be consistent with the trajectory needed to achieve the 80% reduction in carbon emissions in property required by 2050, and is complemented by a target of reducing energy intensity by 40% by 2030 in the same buildings.

However, it is important to remember that the SBTI has appropriated words and formed a definition to suit its own agenda. There is no reason why “science-based targets” should mean anything to do with limiting global warming to below 2oC. Indeed, the principle of science-based target-setting can be applied to a much broader range of issues.

In our next blog, to follow this in quick succession, we discuss alternative and broader frameworks within which appropriate science-based target-setting can be made and some of the key SBT considerations for real estate owners.

ULI Connect

Jon Lovell…in conversation with ULI Connect

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Jon Lovell, co-founder of Hillbreak, was recently interviewed by ULI Connect, the official newsletter of the ~40,000 worldwide members of the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He discusses the impacts of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change for the global real estate industry, the risks and competitiveness drivers of climate change and evolving market expectations, and what motivates him to challenge convention in the industry.

The interview was prompted by Hillbreak’s recent authorship of the major ULI report, L’Accord de Paris: A Potential Game-Changer for the Global Real Estate Industry.

Jon is a long-standing member of ULI and is currently vice-Chair of ULI UK and chairs its Sustainability Council.

You can read the article here.

Urban City

Real Estate Industry Must Address Climate Change to Maintain Competitiveness

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ULI Report L'Accord de Paris

L’Accord de Paris

Hillbreak was the principal author on a major new report on the global real estate implications of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, published today by the Urban Land Institute. The publication of the report coincides with the gathering of world leaders at the United Nations in New York, during which progress on the ratification of the Paris Agreement gathered significant pace.

The central element of the Paris Agreement is the aggressive scientific objective of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and of pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.  The agreement is expected to have significant and far-reaching implications for national and municipal policy making and for business and investment decisions.

Here’s today’s press release on the report:

REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY MUST ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE TO MAINTAIN COMPETITIVENESS, SAYS NEW RESEARCH FROM THE URBAN LAND INSTITUTE

Paper analyzes the real estate implications of UN Paris Agreement on climate change

WASHINGTON (September 21, 2016) – As world leaders gather at the United Nations this week to ratify the Paris Agreement on climate change, a new paper released today by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) argues that many real estate organizations are not adequately prepared for the implications of the agreement, which was made at last year’s 21st annual Conference of the Parties in Paris (COP-21).

Entitled L’Accord de Paris: A Potential Game Changer for the Global Real Estate Industry, the paper provides an overview of the key issues that arose from the COP-21 agreement and outlines steps that the real estate industry can take in response. Since buildings account for nearly one-third of global climate-changing carbon emissions, the agreement could trigger significant changes in requirements for building design, development, operations and management. In order to remain competitive, the industry must proactively limit and respond to the effects of climate change, the paper says.

It notes that from a business perspective, taking action to address climate change can help real estate organizations manage risks and capitalize on new opportunities. Investors and developers who proactively respond to impacts of the Paris agreement can ensure that their buildings remain competitive within changing policy, market, and climate conditions. They are also likely to see bottom-line benefits, as improving energy efficiency to reduce the carbon impact of buildings is one of the most cost-effective solutions to mitigating climate change.

“As leaders in the responsible use of land, ULI’s global members have a pivotal role to play in addressing some of the greatest challenges facing our rapidly urbanizing world, including the pressing threat of climate change,” said Patrick Phillips, ULI’s Global Chief Executive Officer. “The Paris Agreement on climate change will have important implications for both developed and emerging real estate markets, including new business and investment opportunities. ULI has published this paper to support our members in navigating the implications of this agreement, and charting strategies for success.”

ULI leader Jon Lovell, cofounder of Hillbreak and principal author of the report, said, “the Paris Agreement was undoubtedly a landmark diplomatic success, but was only possible because of the groundswell of demand, action and support from business leaders, investors, mayors and industry bodies from across the world.” He added, “Given the value at stake and the weight of evidence collated by this paper, it would be naive to think that investors, tenants and regulators won’t all begin to turn the screws on real estate companies and asset owners. The message is clear — act now to address the implications of the Paris Agreement or face irrelevance in the market.”

According to the paper, the Paris Agreement has catalyzed a change in attitudes and expectations surrounding the real estate market.  Organizations are under increasing pressure to divest from carbon-intensive companies and assets, and to engage with policymakers and stakeholders on sustainability issues. Furthermore, they are expected to demonstrate a heightened disclosure of carbon performance and the risk posed by climate change to their assets, and to retrofit development standards through new technologies and financing models.  Assets that do not conform to these new standards risk low demand and suppressed value.

The first priority for real estate organizations, says the report, should be to audit their resilience against post-COP-21 impacts.  The audit should include a review of the risk exposure of their assets and the capabilities and expectations of their stakeholders.  The paper suggests a list of specific questions on the topics of climate risk, client and stakeholder expectations, competitor approaches, policy change, asset performance, value chain, people and processes.

L’Accord de Paris: A Potential Game Changer for the Global Real Estate Industry is a precursor for a more detailed report, including case studies, scheduled for release in October.

About the Urban Land Institute

The Urban Land Institute is a nonprofit education and research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the institute has nearly 40,000 members worldwide representing all aspects of land use and development disciplines. For more information, please visit uli.org or follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

For more information, please contact Trish Riggs Senior Vice President of Communications at 202-624-7086 email: trisha.riggs@uli.org or Peter Walker, Vice President of Strategic Communications: +44 (0)20 7487 9586 or e-mail peter.walker@uli.org

About Hillbreak

Hillbreak is the new name in training and advisory services for organisations seeking competitive advantage in a changing urban world. Its mission is to expedite the transition to a sustainable policy, business and investment environment by bringing intelligence, challenge and inspiration to its clients and stakeholders. Please visit hillbreak.com for further information of follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

For more information, please contact Jon Lovell, Co-Founder & Director at +44 (0)7825 531031 or e-mail: jon@hillbreak.com, or Miles Keeping, Co-Founder & Director at +44 (0)7971 457959 or e-mail miles@hillbreak.com

 

Spiral

Regulatory Update – Key Recent Sustainability Changes

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Miles Keeping delivered a presentation at the annual breakfast seminar of the Investor Property Forum on recent changes to the policy and regulatory landscape in the UK relating to sustainability. These included an overview of:

• Budget 2016 – What can we expect?

• Business Energy Tax Reform – Where will it take us?

• Future of environmental regulation – What hope is there?

The IPF has published a synopsis of the key topics covered during the event, which also included an update on valuation matters from Philip Parnell of Deloitte Real Estate.

A copy of Miles’ presentation slides can be viewed here:

IPF Regulatory Update

IPF Regulatory Update

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IPF Regulatory Update Miles Keeping (March 2016)

Paris

Summary of ULI Event: Implications of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

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Hillbreak Director, Jon Lovell, recently chaired an Urban Land Institute event on the implications of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change for the real estate industry. It featured an outstanding keynote speech from Sir David King, the UK’s permanent Special Representative for Climate Change, and panelist contributions from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, K&L Gates LLP, Hammerson, Willis Towers Watson and the World Green Building Council.

Here’s a summary of what went down.

Implications Of Paris Deal On Climate Change

Global Warming – It’s Paris or Bust!

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Jon Lovell sets out his thoughts on the implications of the Paris Agreement on climate change for the real estate industry. He asks what difference the Agreement will make to business as usual and what are the implications that developers, asset owners, occupiers and funders should be preparing themselves for.

Article published originally in, and reproduced here with the permission of, www.europroperty.com.

Global Warming - It's Paris Or Bust By Jon Lovell In Europroperty Magazine

 

Eiffel Tower

Hillbreak Adds Voice To Paris Pledge For Action

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L’Appel de Paris

COP21 Paris 2015, UN Climate Change Conference

COP21 Paris 2015, UN Climate Change Conference Logo

Last week at COP 21 in Paris, governments of the world united in action on climate change by adopting the Paris Agreement, the first universal, legally binding climate deal. This agreement will spur a transformation of global growth and development and open the door to a low-carbon, stable, sustainable future.

Today, major cities, regions, investors and companies from around the globe representing 150 million people and US$11 trillion promised to quickly and effectively help implement the Paris Agreement and accelerate the transformative changes needed to meet the climate change challenge.

L’Appel de Paris, or the Paris Pledge for Action, is a call to action in support of the Paris Agreement which brings together a multitude of voices on an unprecedented scale within a single, collective statement:

“We welcome the adoption of a new, universal climate agreement at COP 21 in Paris, which is a critical step on the path to solving climate change. We pledge our support to ensuring that the level of ambition set by the agreement is met or exceeded.”

This landmark pledge is a clear signal that the message sent by the negotiations has been received loud and clear and that cities, regions, business, investors and other non-state actors are now ready and willing to stand shoulder to shoulder, alongside governments, to implement the terms of the agreement. This is our best opportunity to limit global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius and raise ambition even before the agreement takes effect in 2020.

L’Appel de Paris has already been signed over 400 businesses, 120 investors, 150 cities and regions representing 150 million people and US$11 trillion.

Initial signatories include businesses such as Hillbreak, Unilever, Acciona, Allianz, Coca Cola Enterprises, Generali, KPMG, Legal & General Investment Management, Braskem, Tata, Kellog’s, and Mars; cities such as Los Angeles, Johannesubrg, and Addis Abeba; and regions such as Cross River State (Nigeria), and Chiapas (Mexique).

Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change said: “COP21 was a landmark, and not just for the Paris Agreement by governments. The extraordinary momentum witnessed before and during the UN conference by cities, provinces, regions, companies and citizens was also a hallmark”.

“The Paris Pledge for Action is about taking that momentum to the next level in support of nations as they work towards raising ambition up to 2020 and well beyond—it is about building ever more support by non-state actors who are aligning with government policy as never before, “she added.

The pledge is an initiative of the COP21 French Presidency and uniquely incorporates under one roof a diverse range of entities that are already committed to quickly mitigate emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These non-state actors include members of the Under 2 MOU, the White House Act on Climate Pledge, the Montreal Carbon Pledge, the Principles for Sustainable Insurance (PSI) Initiative, the We Mean Business ‘Road to Paris’ initiatives, the Paris City Hall Declaration, ICLEI and many more. The pledge is open to more signatories and will spread around the world. All non-state actors are invited to join this call to action in support of the Paris Agreement.

Jon Lovell, Co-Founder of Hillbreak, said: “Let no-one pretend that COP21 wasn’t an unprecedented achievement for international diplomacy. To unite 195 countries from all parts of the world in this way is unprecedented. But at the same time, let no-one be under the illusion that L’Appel de Paris guarantees our climate safety; far from it. It is now incumbent on all of us to translate the Agreement into a surge of investment and action, and to continue to push for strengthened commitments and policies from Nation States and municipalities.”

About L’Appel de Paris

L’Appel de Paris (Paris Pledge for Action) brings together hundreds of non-state actors from across the globe in support of Paris Agreement on climate change. The Paris Pledge for Action is an initiative of the COP21 French Presidency managed by the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership.

Read the Pledge: www.parispledgeforaction.org/read
See who’s signed the Pledge: www.ParisPledgeForAction.org/whos-joined/
Join the Pledge: www.ParisPledgeForAction.org/sign

Green And Blue Facade, Hillbreak Postcard

Leadership from COP21 Buildings Day

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Today in Paris, the role of buildings in tackling climate change took centre-stage in the first ever ‪#‎BuildingsDay‬ at a Conference of the Parties (COP). Given that carbon emissions resulting from the use of energy in the construction and occupation of buildings accounts for nearly half of global emissions, it is clear that the building sector, in all its forms and across the entire value chain, has a pivotal role to play.

As well as advocating more intelligent and effective policies to drive the decarbonisation of the sector, building owners, occupiers and developers – as well as their supply chain partners – are beginning to demonstrate ever greater leadership by delivering projects and outcomes that go beyond policy requirements.

We say, all power to them! The more leadership they display, and the more they can prove the business and economic benefits of better performing buildings, the more confidence governments will have to hold their nerve on stretching regulatory trajectories to force the laggards in the industry to up their game.

For another example of some of the commitments made by leaders in the real estate sector at ‪#‎COP21‬ ‪#‎BuildingsDay‬ today, see the press release of the Corporate Leaders Group. It’s fantastic to see clients of ours amongst them.

Property & APC Training

Our #climatepledge

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We have written before about the massive significance of the upcoming climate negotiations (COP21) in Paris this December. This could be – and must be – a vital turning point in the global battle against climate change.

As part of the World Green Building Council‘s “Collective Commitment”, we are proud to have joined forces with the UK-GBC and many of its Members, as well as organisations around the world, in making our own #climatepledge.

In particular, our #climatepledge supports the inaugural “Buildings Day” at COP21 on 3rd December. Organised through the UN, Buildings Day is designed to help put the buildings and construction sector on a “below 2°C path”. A whole range of commitments are expected to be published, from an unprecedented number of partner organisations who are collaborating for maximum impact.

Our #ClimatePledge

Hillbreak aims to educate at least 200 people per year between 2015-2020, from global Executives to students and graduates, on the business imperatives of tackling climate change. That’s a minimum of 1,000 people in total.

Our Founders, Jon Lovell & Miles Keeping, commit to providing no less than one day per month of pro-bono time to industry efforts to address climate change and related environmental imperatives. That’s 60 days, or two months, each over the next five years.